UDC 6361:115.1
DOI 10.36461/NP.2023.68.4.011

ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE AND FORECAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF PEASANT (FARM) HOUSEHOLDS IN PENZA REGION
E.V. Efremova, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, Associate Professor; O.A. Tkachuk, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, Associate Professor; S.V. Bogomazov, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, Associate Professor; A.V. Nosov, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor
Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Penza State Agrarian University", Penza, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article analyzes the development trends and prospects of peasant (farm) households and individual entrepreneurs in the Penza region. Based on the statistical data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the dy-namics of the number of small farms in agriculture in the region from 2006 to 2022 was graphically presented. A cartogram was created showing the territorial distribution and the number of peasant (farm) households and individual entrepreneurs in agriculture in the region. In the period from 2006 to 2021, despite the decrease in the number of peasant (farm) households and individual entrepreneurs in the agro-industrial complex of the region by 23.7%, there was an increase in cultivated areas and agricultural land. The analysis of the main indicators for the development of farming in the region is based on the forecast of trend models. The directions of state support provided at the stage of the establishment of farms and in the course of their activity are shown.
Keywords: peasant (farm) households, individual entrepreneurs, cultivated lands, cartogram, trend mod-els, measures of state support.

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UDC 338.27
DOI 10.36461/NP.2023.68.4.021

ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS IN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE
N.F. Zaruk¹, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor; G.A. Volkova², Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor; O.N. Sukhanova², Associate Professor; O.V. Mentyukova², senior lecturer; V.D. Badov², assistant
¹Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “Russian State Agrarian University - Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy”, Moscow, Russia;
²Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “Penza State Agrarian University”, Penza, Russia, tel. (937) 4119433, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article describes the stages of development of economic forecasting in Russia from the beginning of the XX century to the present. The problem of forecasting socio-economic processes is very important due to the fact that in present situation, the effectiveness of enterprises and organizations depends on the ability to anticipate market situation and development trends in the future. In the practice of forecasting a significant number of different processes, time series models are used. One of the priorities of the agrarian state policy is to improve the efficiency of the dairy industry. Although the last decade in Russia has been characterized by a decrease in the number of cows, the dynamics of milk production has not been strong, yet steady. This is due to the increased productivity of the dairy herd. If we analyze the dynamics of milk production in Russia for the period from 1990 to 2022, it tends to decrease [1]. This was confirmed by a trend model based on the equation of a third-order polynomial. In the article, mathematical dependencies are obtained and analyzed, that describe with a high degree of reliability the dynamics of changes in some indicators of the dairy industry. For this pur-pose, the selection of factors that affect milk production was carried out, and a linear regression model was built, which, despite the relatively simple mathematical apparatus, provides a lower risk of significant forecast errors compared with nonlinear models. The regression equation included variables: raw milk production, cow density per 100 hectares of agricultural land, feed consumption per 1 average annual head, and the share of agriculture in the Russian economy. The estimation of multiple regression parameters was performed using the STADIA statistical package. The forecast of milk production was made using the multiple regression equation. The values of the factors included in it were previously predicted using trend models.
Keywords: forecast, mathematical methods, models, agriculture, milk production, trend, regression.

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UDC 632.08
DOI 10.36461/NP.2023.68.4.020

DESIGN OF A DEVICE FOR HEAT TREATMENT OF GRAIN FOR FEED PRODUCTION
A.L. Petryaev¹, graduate student; A. V. Chupshev¹, Candidate of Engineering Sciences, Associate Professor; V. P. Teryushkov¹, Candidate of Engineering Sciences, Associate Professor; V.V. Konovalov², Doctor of Engineering Sciences, Professor.
¹Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Penza State Agrarian University", Penza, Russia, (9273) 872 244, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.;
²Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Penza State Technological University", Penza, Russia, (8412) 690-320, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Modern science in the field of agriculture is actively looking for promising ways and technological equip-ment to destroy harmful microflora in feed grains before feeding farm animals, which, in turn, should increase the quality and nutritional value of feed. The technological process of processing feed grain, namely disinfection, imposes special requirements on the designs of devices for heat treatment of grain crops. Based on the analysis of well-known engineering solutions for the heat treatment of grain, a promising direction for the development of a device for the heat treatment of feed grain is substantiated [1-3].The work is aimed at improving the effi-ciency of disinfection by improving the technological process and design of the device for heat treatment of grain in feed production and is relevant for the agroindustrial complex of the Russian Federation.The article describes the design, the technological scheme of operation, the result of laboratory experiment of a new device for heat treatment of grain in feed production. The application of the device can result in the improvement of the quality of preparation of feed grain for processing, the increase of nutritional value of feed grain and the degree of uniform disinfection of the dried crop, which minimizes the need for a separate procedure aimed at stopping the microflora.
Keywords: heat treatment, infrared radiation source, micronizer, feed grain, feed, quality, nutritional value, technological process, microflora, hay bacillus.

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UDC 631.331
DOI 10.36461/NP.2023.68.4.017

THEORETICAL STUDIES ON THE TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESS OF SOWING CEREAL CROPS WITH A COMBINED COULTER
V.V. Shumaev, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor; S. V. Timokhin, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor; E.Zh. Apieva, Associate Professor
Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education "Penza State Agrarian University", Penza, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In modern agriculture, preference is given to agricultural machinery that enables the technological process to be carried out efficiently and in the shortest possible time. The article presents the design of a combined coulter, which enables high-quality distribution of seeds both in the length of the row and in depth at increased speeds. Compared to analogous devices, due to the original design of the ripper (seed guide), there is no mixing of soil and seed during work, which has a positive effect on improving the quality of work. The purpose of the theoretical study was to improve the quality of crop sowing by developing and using a combined coulter with a ripper (seed guide). Based on the results of the research, theoretical dependencies were determined, which made it possible to determine the index of the kinematic mode of seed flight, the optimal speed of the machine-tractor unit, as well as the angle of inclination of the curved part of the ripper. In the process of the research, the equa-tions of motion of a seed and a soil element during coulter operation were established. As a result of theoretical calculations, it can be noted that the index of the kinematic mode at a soil moisture content of 17-19% is 0.20...0.23 and at the same time the speed of the machine corresponds to 3-3.5 m/s.
Keywords: coulter, seeder, theoretical research, soil, sowing, seeds.

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