UDC 631.5:633.11.324:551.5(470.345)
DOI 10.36461/NP.2025.76.4.024

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WINTER WHEAT YIELD IN SOUTHERN NON-CHERNOZEM ZONE OF RUSSIA (THE REPUBLIC OF MORDOVIA)
A.V. Ivoilov¹, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Professor; M.S. Trubkin¹, Postgraduate;
S.E. Khlevina^1,2, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor;
T.N. Chernysheva², Agrometeorological Engineer; E.O. Glazkova^1,2, Master's Student
¹Ogarev Mordovia State University, Saransk, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
²Mordovia Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring – Branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution “Upper Volga Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring”, Saransk, Russia

Efficient agriculture and crop production under local meteorological conditions, as well as innovative trends in agricultural technologies, are highly relevant and influence on the climate aridization. Current research is aimed at assessment of trends in agrometeorological climate indicators in the Republic of Mordovia over a 76-year period (1948-2023), to find out the phenology of winter wheat and the impact of the main agroclimatic resources on grain yields. Time series of meteorological data and the associated crop yield indicators at agrometeorological observation plots were analyzed. It was noted that the main meteorological indicators varied widely both interannually and monthly. An increase in the average annual air temperature was observed with a growth rate of 0.28°C/10 years. A significant increase in the average annual temperature has been noted since the beginning of the third millennium, primarily due to the cold season. The dynamics of the annual precipitation amount and the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) of the growing season are described by a second-order parabola: their maximum occurred in the 1990s. In recent years, a decrease in the average annual precipitation has been observed, particularly due to May and July, along with a decrease in HTC values. The phenology of winter wheat is presented, indicating the duration of the interphase periods. The correlation between wheat yield and the amount of precipitation, average monthly air temperature, and HTC during the summer growing season of the crop was evaluated. It was found that the grain yield of winter wheat is closely correlated with precipitation and the HTC in May–July (r = 0.918…0.944) and is inversely related to the air temperature in the summer period (r = -0.711 … -0.914).
Keywords: climate change, winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), yield, meteorological conditions, hydrothermal coefficient, phenology, correlation.

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